一 | Sputnik: How do you assess the results of the XIV BRICS Summit for Russia and India?,Denis Alipov: The XIV BRICS Summit held on 23 June this year was certainly another significant step in the development of the BRICS [Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa] grouping, which in essence reflects the formation of a new reality in international relations - the transition from a unipolar system to a polycentric world order.,The important thing is that, against the backdrop of geopolitical collisions, the five countries send a powerful message of common understanding of global processes - from reforming the multilateral system of economic governance to the situation in disarmament and non-proliferation, information security, counter-terrorism and other challenges. There was a clear consensus against arbitrary sanctions, which are the exclusive prerogative of the UN Security Council. We also shared a disapproval of the distorting effects of any discriminatory measures in international trade, which mainly affect developing countries.,Of course, our main target now is to build a smooth and reliable system of mutual settlements as an alternative to a compromised mechanism based on the dominance of the US dollar. We suggest developing a new international currency, to connect the banks of the BRICS countries to the Russian System for Transfer of Financial Messages, SPFS (a SWIFT analogue), to integrate national payment systems into a unified network for cross-border clearing settlements.,Clearly, no less importantly are steps to strengthen BRICS’ sectoral cooperation, which, according to the results of this year's work, continues to expand in the spheres of health, science and technology, space, etc. The New Development Bank, having a loan portfolio of $29Bln, stands out for its successful project activities.,The BRICS+ High-level Forum on Sustainable Development received a great response, which demonstrated the considerable interest developing countries have in cooperating with BRICS, and the positive global agenda that the grouping is building.,I believe that the BRICS, contrary to criticism, will have an increasing influence on world processes.,Sputnik: How does India and China's interaction within the BRICS framework unfold against the backdrop of the territorial dispute between the two countries in Ladakh? And how does this disagreement generally affect how the 'Five' interact and work with each other? Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Wednesday said that “common interests of India and China 'far outweigh' the differences” at a meeting with India’s ambassador to Beijing - is that really true?,Denis Alipov: Interaction within BRICS is mature and constructive. The active participation of India and China in all BRICS events this year clearly demonstrates this. The most important thing is that the member states use this platform not to antagonize each other but to promote mutually beneficial cooperation and synergy of interests.,The "Five" offer an extensive common agenda on these very foundations, that in one way or other will also contribute to overcoming bilateral disagreements.,Sputnik: Does BRICS plan to expand in the near future (according to media reports, China is in favor of this), and how do Russia and India view this?,Denis Alipov: The interest of like-minded countries in the "Five" is proof positive of how inclusive the association is, its openness to cooperation with all constructively minded partners, ready to seek answers to the challenges which are facing the international community at present.,Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stressed that the discussion of BRICS expansion is justified and timely. The idea itself received principled support at the XIV BRICS Summit. Another thing to remember is that haste in this matter may be counterproductive. It is necessary to think in detail about the principles, standards and procedures of such a process, which should be developed through debate and by consensus. The main thing is that the accession of new members will help to increase the effectiveness and practical impact of the “Five's” activities.,Sputnik: How do you assess BRICS' role as a platform for building relations between the members of the association and enhancing relations between Russia and India in particular?,Denis Alipov: BRICS plays an important role in building relations between member countries. It has a great deal of institutional capacity and experience in practical cooperation. As I have already said, the “Five” share a common understanding of the need to build an equitable and fair polycentric model of the global system that corresponds with the political, economic and cultural diversity of today's world and meets the interests of all its states.,The decisions made at this platform undoubtedly also contribute to enhancing cooperation between India and Russia. It is sufficient to cite a few examples of the mechanisms that have been created: the New Development Bank, the Vaccine Research and Development Center, and the Joint Committee on Space Cooperation. Each of them provides a platform for experts to share experiences and find promising solutions in specific areas, and they can use this useful experience both at home and with regard to the interaction between our two countries.,BRICS May Defuse Frozen Border Issues Between India and China, Expert Says27 June, 10:14 GMT,Sputnik: India has recently come under pressure from the West because of its balanced stance on Russia's special military operation in Ukraine. Have the anti-Russian sanctions affected the cooperation between Moscow and New Delhi? And have you personally noticed any changes in the Indian position?,Denis Alipov: The partnership between Russia and India rests on a deep strategic foundation, drawing its strengths not only from strong historical roots, but also on a coinciding vision of the future world order. As you see, the external conjunction is incapable of affecting our relations in any meaningful way. We have regularly seen evidence of this in statements by the Indian leadership in recent months.,We are grateful to New Delhi for its objective assessment of the Ukrainian events. Clearly, they understand the background of the present geopolitical and geo-economic situation and the forced nature of Russia's actions in Ukraine. They see the destructive role of illegitimate restrictions in the genesis of the present global food and energy crisis, the responsibility for which the West seeks to place entirely on our country.,India does not support attempts to isolate Russia in multilateral forums and is critical of the West's wish to reduce the international agenda to the conflict in question, ignoring other key global and regional problems, which the West itself has exacerbated significantly. The pressure exerted by the West, aggressively imposing its conditions about who one can and cannot be friends with, causes the rejection of such diktat.,At the same time, we must be realistic about what is happening: India is interested in developing cooperation with the rest of the world, including the United States and Europe. National interests and the need to preserve strategic autonomy guide the Indians in their actions, rejecting the very idea of dividing lines and the paradigm of bloc confrontation.,As for the sanctions as such, they certainly throw up challenges, which will require a certain time to adapt and, I am sure, will be overcome in time. The main thing is that our cooperation actively continues because it is based on common interests and an understanding of each other's special place in mutual strategic arrangements.,Sputnik: In December 2021, Russia and India outlined many new goals for cooperation, including doubling mutual trade and investment. How realistic do these goals now seem?,Denis Alipov: First and foremost, it should be noted that the goals outlined in December 2021 at the annual bilateral summit in New Delhi are fully consistent with the enormous potential of our relations. The India-Russia partnership operates on all sorts of levels. We are expanding cooperation in communications, diamond processing, forestry, healthcare and pharmaceuticals, tourism, railroads, metallurgy, civil aviation, shipbuilding and oil refining. Our military and military-technical cooperation is being strengthened. We are progressively implementing the plans adopted at the 2019 Vladivostok Summit to work together in the Far Eastern and Arctic regions, and we are building up cooperation in the trade, economic, investment, banking and financial sectors.,The dynamics of bilateral trade speak for itself. According to India's statistics, from January to April 2022, it amounted to $6.4Bln. This is almost twice as much as for the same period last year. If we maintain these volumes throughout the year, we will have a turnover of more than $19Bln by the end of 2022. To put this in context, let me remind you that in the previous year we had an absolute record of $13.6Bln.,I expect that despite the West's sanctions against Russia, the positive dynamics of trade will continue. Unfortunately, in the first months after the launch of the special military operation in Ukraine there were certain difficulties with supplying Russian goods to India and vice versa. However, today we have successfully overcome most of these barriers. We are confident that Indian exports to Russia (including science-intensive ones) will gain momentum in the near future.,We see good prospects for Indian pharmaceutical products, leather and textiles, agricultural goods, components for machinery and equipment, telecommunications equipment, organic chemistry products. We expect growth in mutual turnover of services in such sectors as tourism, finance and insurance, telecommunications and information technology, transport and construction. We have great hopes for the implementation of the International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC) project.,The withdrawal of many western companies from the Russian market opens up many new opportunities for Indian businesses. The Russian business community is very serious about strengthening ties with India. Russia invites Indian companies in the aviation and metallurgical industries, in the wood-processing chain, and firms producing consumer goods for business cooperation.,Our main task today is to adjust our trade and economic relations to the new realities, to synchronize the payment systems of the two countries, giving priority to the increased use of national currencies.,Sputnik: US media giants, despite the diversity of the Indian media sphere, have been successful in infiltrating it. How far do you think has US propaganda penetrated local media? How do you view your interaction with the Indian media against this backdrop?,Denis Alipov: Indeed, western media has taken a very strong hold around the world and in India as well. These circumstances – and many local analysts point this out – limit the ability of national media outlets to offer their audiences an independent view of global processes. Much of the content published here is reprints from Reuters, the Associated Press, and AFP, all of which openly promote the interests of the so-called collective West, not shying away from fostering Russophobic sentiments and trafficking fake news.,India Discussing Rupee-Ruble Payment Mechanism With Russia24 June, 13:35 GMT,This is especially evident in the Indian media's coverage of events around Ukraine. Local newspapers sometimes publish absolute nonsense, exposing a basic ignorance of the region and history. There is no shortage of blatantly ordered articles aimed at denigrating the activities of Russian companies in India. This is nothing but an attempt at unfair competition.,Obviously, we respond appropriately. We publish our own material and rebuttals. We work with the press corps and explain all the nuances of the events from a historical and geopolitical point of view. We make active use of internet resources in this area.,It is noteworthy that local authorities have also intervened in the situation. In April this year, India's Ministry of Information and Broadcasting issued recommendations to satellite TV channels, indicating the unacceptability of spreading inaccurate and misleading information, including in the context of covering Russia's special military operation in Ukraine.,We know that the vast majority of our Indian friends, including in the journalistic community, do not share the one-sided view of the situation imposed on them. They prefer to trust facts, which, incidentally, are in the public domain - every day relevant materials are posted on the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Defense's websites. They can also be found on the embassy's website and its social media accounts.,Some Indian journalists visited the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, wanting to see with their own eyes what was really going on. Their reports and interviews are now available to the public. I would like to take this opportunity to express my gratitude for their work.,Furthermore, I would like to thank our audience on social media. Thanks to their comments and support, we can see that attempts to tarnish Russia are doomed to failure.,Sputnik: You are an expert on India and speak Hindi. Please tell us, what made you fall in love with this country?,Denis Alipov: India for me is a life-long journey. I have spent more than 27 years here, studied its history in college, and been directly involved with the development of relations with it throughout my tenure.,As it did for my mentor and predecessor, the late Ambassador Alexander Kadakin [Russia's ambassador to India from 2009 to 2017], India became for me a 'Karmabhoomi' - a land of action.,India is an incredible country, an ancient civilization that combines centuries-old traditions and modern trends, the diversity of cultures, languages and beliefs. It is the brightest embodiment of the formula of unity in diversity. Rapid economic, scientific and technological development, the large young active population, the impressive growth of authority in the global arena have ensured its strong place among the world powers that will determine the future of our planet.。 近日，OpenAI和Anthropic的首次公开募股（IPO）有了新进展。 Anthropic最快将于8月底递交IPO文件，并有望打破SpaceX的最大IPO纪录；OpenAI高管表示公司将在2027年IPO。 但在此时，有分析师反而断言：AI泡沫已经破裂。 一边是AI“双巨头”冲刺IPO，营收、估值节节冲高；另一边美国大模型价格一月大跌近25%。 美国AI行业的隐忧正在浮出水面：模型降价导致算力需求增加，行业或将面临7000亿～8000亿美元的巨额融资缺口，因此科技巨头大举发债“输血”算力，与美债争夺资金，推高全社会融资成本。 市场正在讨论，AI赚到的钱，还能不能追上它烧掉的钱？
美国大模型正在丧失定价权，平均价格一个月下降近25% 当地时间8月20日，据媒体报道，Anthropic预计其IPO规模可能追平甚至超过SpaceX创下的纪录，最快将于8月底公开递交IPO文件，目前公司仍在测算最终募资规模。SpaceX此前IPO首发募资750亿美元，计入超额配售后达到862亿美元。 8月19日，OpenAI首席财务官萨拉·弗里亚尔（Sarah Friar）表示，该公司计划于2027年完成IPO，不过，如果业务增长加速，上市时间也可能提前。 今年第二季度，OpenAI营收达到67亿美元，较第一季度增长18%，年化收入近期已突破400亿美元。 Anthropic的增长更为迅猛。截至7月底，其年化收入已达650亿美元，而2025年底仅约90亿美元；公司二季度初步营收数据为115亿美元。 据媒体报道，Anthropic向投资者给出的2028年收入预测达到1900亿至2000亿美元，也由此催生了其上市后估值可能达到2万亿美元的市场预期。 全球宏观咨询公司David Woo Unbound首席执行官、经济学家David Woo在接受《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称每经记者）采访时表示，AI交易面临的最大风险，就是商品化（commoditization）不可避免。
AI模型每任务成本（图片来源：Artificial Analysis） “第二季度，OpenAI营收增速大幅放缓、利润率出现收缩。产生这一结果的一个主要原因，就是来自中国大模型的竞争日益加剧，导致其定价权的丧失。”David Woo进一步指出，乍看之下，Anthropic似乎避免了同样的命运。但Anthropic是真正逃脱了商品化的命运，还是仅仅比OpenAI晚几个季度步入这一阶段？“从逻辑推断，答案更有可能是后者。Anthropic的IPO正逐渐演变成一场对整个AI交易逻辑的公投。” 但与收入和估值一路攀升形成鲜明反差的是：模型越卖越便宜。 7月底，OpenAI将GPT-5.6 Luna的API价格下调80%，Terra价格下调20%。7月24日，Anthropic发布Claude Opus 5，每百万Token输入5美元、输出25美元，恰好只有Fable 5的一半。Anthropic强调，Opus 5能够“以一半价格接近Fable 5的前沿智能”。公司还取消了原定于9月生效的Sonnet 5涨价计划。 分析机构Silicon Data统计，美国顶尖实验室的AI推理平均价格在7月中旬至8月中旬下降近25%。
投行TD Cowen对AI模型聚合平台OpenRouter数据的分析显示，Luna降价80%后，短期调用量增长至此前约14倍；Terra降价20%后，调用量增长约5倍。调用量增长超过价格降幅，使得两款模型收入继续增加，Luna收入较降价前七天增长约34%，Terra增长约45%。 “降价→需求增加→扩大开支”恶性循环：2028年行业外部融资缺口高达7000亿~8000亿美元 今年第二季度，OpenAI营收从一季度的57亿美元增长至67亿美元，但经营亏损却从93亿美元进一步扩大至123亿美元。
Anthropic的情况相对乐观，其二季度收入超过110亿美元，已接近甚至实现季度经营盈利。盈利能力改善也是投资者愿意给予该公司高估值的重要原因之一。
二 | 
投资咨询公司One Point BFG Wealth Partners首席投资官彼得·布可瓦（Peter Boockvar）在接受每经记者采访时表示，随着全新的定价落地，AI企业的商业模式将面临严峻测试，此前承诺的巨额债务依然挂在账上，甚至未来还会进一步增加。“高性价比的中国大模型，正让Anthropic与OpenAI的处境更为棘手，毕竟两家企业背负着高昂的资本开支与巨大的技术投入需求。
三 | ” 此外，微软、Alphabet、亚马逊、Meta和Oracle今年7月将2026年合计资本开支上调至约7300亿美元，半年增加2450亿美元。 但是，资本开支增长速度正在明显超过企业自身创造现金的速度。
四 | David Woo表示，超大规模云厂商的资本开支增速是营业利润增速的三倍；AI资本开支周期已经持续三年，营业利润增长依然明显落后于资本开支增长，因此这些投资的回报存在很大不确定性。 伦敦证券交易所集团（LSEG）预测，与2025年相比，到2027年五大科技巨头每年的经营现金流将增加约3400亿美元，但同期资本开支预计增加约5340亿美元。也就是说，每增加1美元经营现金流，需要对应增加约1.57美元资本投入。如果当前趋势持续，到2027年，五家公司的资本开支总额可能超过其产生的自由现金流。 这意味着，过去软件和互联网企业“收入快速增长、资产投入相对有限”的轻资产模式正在改变。 AI越来越像一门重资产生意：收入每增长一轮，都需要更多芯片、服务器、电力和数据中心作为支撑。
五 | 国金证券首席经济学家宋雪涛测算，假设未来四年AI行业资本支出增速为25%、15%、5%、0%，在不同折旧情景下，AI行业要实现会计盈亏平衡，2030年AI收入需要达到1.06万亿美元至1.42万亿美元。 假设2026年年末美国头部模型商共计实现约2000亿美元的ARR水平，那未来4年（2026-2030）需要兑现的年化增速分别为63.3%、55.8%和51.8%。由此估算，AI行业外部融资缺口的见顶时间在2028年左右，对应约7000亿~8000亿美元量级。如果收入低于期待兑现幅度，外部融资缺口将会更大。 2200亿美元企业债券涌入市场，分析师称“AI泡沫已经破裂” 当AI资本开支越来越难由企业自身现金流覆盖，债券市场开始成为新的“输血通道”。 8月20日，据媒体报道，博通正与贷款机构讨论一项规模可能高达1000亿美元的AI基础设施融资方案，其中包括约300亿美元次级债务，以及600亿至700亿美元高级担保融资。资金将被用于支持Anthropic、OpenAI等公司的算力扩张。今年6月，博通就已与阿波罗、黑石达成一笔350亿美元融资，用于支持Anthropic扩大计算能力。 这并非个例。 LSEG数据显示，截至今年8月中旬，AI和大型科技公司的债券发行规模已经超过2200亿美元，是2025年全年的两倍。同期美国企业债发行达到1.68万亿美元，同比增长近27%。 问题在于，科技巨头正在与美国政府争夺同一批长期资金。 彼得·布可瓦向每经记者指出，这些拥有极高信用评级的科技巨头发债融资以建设算力和数据中心，实际上构成了对固定收益市场资本的直接抢夺，进一步推高整个债券市场的期限溢价。 宋雪涛向每经记者表示，科技巨头从现金流的创造者、股票回购者、金融资产买家，转变为长期资本的需求方，同时美国政府的财政融资需求没有下降。当全球信用质量最好的私人企业，开始与全球最大的主权债务发行人争夺长期资本时，必然导致供求的挤出效应。“例如，8月7日，Alphabet宣布250亿美元发债计划当天，美债收益率全线走高3至4个基点，10年期美债收益率升至4.65%左右，30年期升至5.21%。” 目前，美国联邦政府债务已突破40万亿美元。美国财政部长贝森特也直接提到了AI融资带来的竞争。他表示，美国财政部在长期债券市场上不得不面对大量收益率更高的企业债发行，其中就包括为AI基础设施融资的债券。 面对主权债与优质科技债的双重挤压，彼得·布可瓦认为，“市场的容纳极限正遭遇前所未有的挑战。” “资本争夺战无疑正在加剧，所有人的资本成本都在被推高。”彼得·布可瓦强调，“在这种宏观环境下，无论企业规模有多大，拥有一个健康、稳健的资产负债表比以往任何时候都更加关键。
六 | ” 宋雪涛也认为，如果明年美国财政赤字和AI资本支出同时维持高位，长期融资成本继续上升是最有可能的结果。 他表示，市场大概率不能吸收如此巨大的供给而不推高长期融资成本。未来更可能出现的情况是，美国财政部缩短发债久期，科技企业提高息票（coupon）、扩大新券让利，并继续转向私募信贷、SPV和租赁融资。 但这类融资方式也可能把风险进一步传导至私募信贷、保险和银行体系。
七 | “未来二三线数据中心、Neocloud、私募信贷项目以及缺乏长期合同支持的算力资产可能面临更大的出清风险。”宋雪涛告诉每经记者。 而这也是David Woo最悲观的地方。面对资本开支持续高于盈利增长、模型竞争加剧以及融资需求不断扩大的组合，他表示，自己准备重新增加AI空头仓位，并给出了一个比“投资回报下降”更激进的判断：整个故事一天比一天恶化。我现在真的确信，AI泡沫终于已经破裂了。（文章来源：每日经济新闻）。
Current article:http://6uhhd.wairanleichengwochengzhui.shop/list_g63gs/5xr5u.html
Published on:22:36:04
